The State of the Nation . . . From the Canadian Aviation Perspective

ROB SEAMAN shows some optimism in the Canadian market

“Fasten your seatbelts please and prepare for some in-flight turbulence” - that was how 2009 began and performed for any aspect of aviation. Regardless of your “niche”, the last 12 – 18 months was one of the roughest rides many in the business have ever seen. But if past experience is any teacher, what does not kill you makes you stronger. For those who hunkered down and used the recession wisely, the recovery might be just that bit easier and faster.

The most adversely affected part of the aviation world this time has been private aviation. Use of personal aircraft for pleasure or business took a sold hit on the nose and for some appeared to be down for the count. Remember too - this was a segment that had witnessed unprecedented success in recent years, right down to bidding wars on resale aircraft, premiums on early delivery positions for new ones and order books full well into 2015. Even the ridiculous fuel prices of last year slowed the drive for corporate aircraft but never really grounded them as this recession did. At one point, depending upon whose crystal ball you were using, it was suggested that anywhere from 30 – 40 percent of the world private aviation fleet was for sale or under threat of disposal. Positions were cancelled on new orders and entire OEMs and product lines fell victim to the Armageddon befalling our industry.

One bright spot in this whole mess has been the avionics industry. For the last few years their major news centered on cabin systems to enhance the passenger world. But more recently the new technology flowing from the avionics think tanks has been a shot of hope in the storm and focused on the cockpit and performance improvement realm. These new innovations are not just finding a home in aircraft coming off the line – they also have solid market demand as upgrades and life extension projects. This has allowed many aircraft operators and owners to retain and retrain their proven and trusted aircraft into a modern and efficient mode of transport. Improved performance, enhanced safety, better cockpit resource management, incredible data and communication transfer rates and better overall efficiency with improved operational costs are the selling points. Collectively they have been the baseline factor in many deciding to upgrade from steam drive dials, wire harnesses and gyros to flat panel, multifunction excellence and high-speed/high volume data rates.

Transport Canada and the FAA, along with other aircraft associations have a lot of influence on the light aircraft retrofit market. A TC/FAA mandate can and has lead to a dramatic increase in activity, particularly in the electronics sector, as operators hurry to comply. TAWS and RVSM compliance alone has helped revitalized the electronics aftermarket. WAAS is doing likewise and other enhancements and improvements in the pipeline will also add to demand. Forecasters predict that the light aircraft retrofit market will show no sign of weakening over the next 10 years – which is good news if you are an avionics shop or OEM. They also tell us that the resale aircraft inventories have leveled out and even started to show signs of increased sales activity. Also they predict that most OEMs will hold steady in deliveries for the next year or two at least. Add to that a general recovery in the global economic world and air travel is once again in demand.

While it will take years to regain the position we were in before the 2009 fall, we will recover and grow. “Been there and seen it before,” as the old timers will say. At least the worst is over – it seems as of today!