Subtle Optimism at Dubai Air Show

Fresh from the Dubai Air Show, JEAN MENARD offers his observations on the show and how the market is faring

Whatever Dubai sets its mind to, it does exceptionally well. I was in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, a couple of weeks back for the Dubai Air Show. Shaikh Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the Crown Prince of Dubai, described the Air Show as an international forum for senior Arab and foreign politicians, officers, businessmen, investors, media men as well as sightseers to view and discuss the latest innovations with aviation specialists from airlines, aircraft makers and defense contractors, avionics manufacturers and aircraft completion centers from more than 50 countries worldwide—now that’s a mouth full.

The static display featured a vast assortment of commercial, air transport and military aircraft and helicopters including the V-22 Raptor, the Airbus A-380, Gulfstream G-450 and 550, Boeing’s corporate BBJ, and Dassault F-7X. Bombardier had its full line-up of corporate aircraft there. And of course, there were also a couple dozen used aircraft up for sale.

Spread-out over four different halls, service providers, aircraft completion centers, aircraft manufacturers, fixed base operators and hundreds of other related businesses put on a display of their capabilities for their Middle East clientele. Show management reported hosting 890 exhibitors from 47 countries. In reality, customers from all around the globe attend, and it is now considered one of the top shows. Paris and Farnborough Air Shows, Aircraft Interiors in Hamburg, EBACE in Geneva, and the U.S.-based NBAA are some of the other key events.

The show was well attended by all of the major aircraft manufacturers, engine, and landing gear manufacturers and other basic aircraft equipment. Avionics manufacturers EMS, Honeywell, Rockwell Collins, Thales, Cobham, and Thrane & Thrane as well as aircraft completion and modification centers worldwide were also there, but few had large deals to disclose.

My experience on the ground was similar to that of WAEA and NBAA with a reduced (although encouraging) number of visitors. Dubai Air Show organizers reported that the show order book finished off at $14 billion. While Airbus won the race for contracts disclosure at $5.3 billion, AFP (Agence France-Presse) reported that this didn’t even come close to the 2007 Air Show, when it received its largest-ever single order from Dubai's Emirates airline—a value of $20 billion. Boeing made two announcements worth approximately $800 million, but orders announced by others were also smaller. With the number of new deals at Dubai and elsewhere continuing to be lower than in previous years, the industry is likely to feel the effects of the recession for at least the next six to twelve months.

I did see some optimism. “Air Transport World Magazine” reported in its daily that both Boeing and Airbus have seen requests to delay aircraft deliveries slow; at least there’s one sign that recovery could be starting. And both found the Show encouraging, noting that the Middle East has managed to defy international trends. It is evident that recovery is hard to put your finger on. Some are expecting 2010 to be a year of recovery with growth only being seen in 2011 while others, including Honeywell reported a record year for air transport deliveries in 2009, and that it is 2010 that will see the worst with recovery in 2012-13.